Chinese automakers could sell 1.7 million vehicles a year in the United States by 2038, taking about 11% of the market, under a scenario outlined by research firm Mobility Global. The estimate was presented in Detroit on September 23 by Peter Nagle, the firm’s associate director of US vehicle forecasting. It depends on the US allowing vehicles made in North America by Chinese companies, while tariffs continue to make direct imports from China largely unworkable.
Mobility Global sees only a low-to-moderate chance that restrictions on North American-built vehicles will be lifted over the next decade. The forecast also rests on price appeal: Chinese compact and midsize crossovers sold in other countries can cost about as much as the average used car in the US, potentially attracting buyers in a market where overall new-vehicle sales have been mostly flat.
In the modeled pathway, BYD, Geely Auto and SAIC Motor could begin shipping vehicles from Mexican factories as early as 2029. Production at new US plants could follow in the 2030s if popular models reach annual US sales of roughly 40,000 units each. These are scenario assumptions, not announced company investment plans.
The firm estimates Chinese entry could add around 600,000 annual US sales while taking about one million sales from existing competitors, with Nissan, Hyundai and Toyota among those most exposed. The forecast comes amid political debate: President Donald Trump has expressed openness to Chinese automakers building US factories with American workers, while industry groups and some lawmakers are pressing to preserve restrictions.