China's new energy vehicle retail sales are on track to rebound this month after August's dip. The China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) projects passenger NEV retail volume of roughly 1.11 million units in September, a sequential gain of about 10.5% from 1.005 million, powered by a quarter-end sales push and deliveries of newly launched models. NEVs are set to take 65.7% of overall passenger-car retail, topping the record 65.2% share logged in August.
The annual comparison, however, keeps deteriorating. The September estimate implies a 14.35% year-on-year drop, steeper than August's 10% decline. Total passenger-car retail is forecast at about 1.69 million units — 9.7% more than in August but 24.6% below last September's outsized base of 2.241 million, making this a weaker peak-season September than usual.
The CPCA also flagged unusually restrained targets: major automakers that together account for more than 70% of the market have penciled in September retail goals less than 10% above August levels, well short of the typical quarter-end ramp. Weekly tracking shows daily retail averaging 35,000 units in the first week and around 44,000 in the second, both down sharply from a year earlier, before building to a projected 96,000 per day in the final week on National Day demand and quarterly target-chasing.
Underlying demand remains shaky. Auto retail sales fell 13.9% in the first eight months of the year even as total consumer goods retail edged up 1.1%, keeping cars a major drag on big-ticket spending. The association said volatile and rising fuel prices have hobbled gasoline-car demand, while NEVs enter September with a hefty order backlog, deliveries of previously delayed new models, and ongoing trade-in incentives and local subsidies acting as a floor for the market.