China’s passenger NEV retail sales are forecast to reach about 1.07 million in October, according to an estimate released Friday by the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA). That would be 16.5% below October 2025 and around 1.3% less than September. NEVs are expected to account for 66.9% of passenger-car retail sales, just below September’s record 67.0% share.
The broader passenger-car market is also expected to remain weak. The CPCA projects retail sales of about 1.6 million vehicles, down 1.1% from September and 28.9% from a year earlier. The association said the usual seasonal lift had diminished: showroom visits rose slightly over the National Day holiday in early October, then fell back. It also cited subdued household income expectations and buyers’ reluctance to commit amid intense dealer competition.
Sales patterns during the month have been uneven. Holiday orders helped lift average daily retail sales to about 58,000 in the second week, but the figure eased to roughly 47,000 in the third. The CPCA expects a modest recovery to around 49,000 in the fourth week and about 79,000 in the fifth, supported by month-end sales efforts. Retail NEV sales from October 1 to 18 were 520,000, down 13% year on year. The CPCA says NEV demand is holding up better than gasoline-car demand, but has plateaued, while the overall passenger-car market has yet to find a floor.